Monument to the discoveries.

A week ago I was standing with my wife by the River Tagus in Lisbon, next to the Monument to the Discoveries. The monument is at the spot where Vasco da Gama set out to discover the southeast passage from Europe to Asia, past the Cape of Good Hope. Vasco’s discovery marked the beginning of the Portuguese maritime empire. At the furthest tip of Europe, Portugal was perfectly situated to found such an empire. As well as conquering parts of Africa, they gained footholds in China and India, and colonised Brazil on the other side of the Atlantic. Whether or not the Africans, Chinese, Indians or South Americans ever appreciated being ‘discovered’, Portugal established the first global village where everyone spoke the same language. It was relatively short-lived, and never equalled the wealth of the Spanish and British empires that succeeded it. Nevertheless, it began the European domination of every other continent on the planet from 16th to 20th century. Visiting the monument, I was struck by a peculiar irony. Just as Portugal once led to the rise of Europe, it now appears to be leading our decline. In recent years, the Portuguese government has become the first in western Europe to be unable to raise loans in the international bond market. It has had to receive a bail-out from the European Central Bank, and to undertake a fierce ‘austerity programme’ of cuts in pensions and the public sector, including its health service. Ireland and Greece have followed in Portugal’s wake, with probably more countries to come. Although it would be nice to see these recent events as a temporary blip in the continent’s fortunes, it is probably more realistic to interpret what is happening as the end of half a millennium of continuous economic expansion in western Europe. Perhaps the tactics of our governments may succeed in delaying the process by a few years. However it would be foolish to believe that western Europe can avoid a relative decline on the global scene. Ironically, it is the countries that Portugal first ‘discovered’dChina, India and Brazildthat now have the fastest economic growth in the world. Economists predict that they will be the dominant nations on earth for the next 100 years.